The new year has arrived with drastic news for China. Recently, on January 17, 2023, China’s National Bureau of Statistics announced that China’s population decreased by 8,50,000 in 2022. This is the first population decrease since 2016. In 1916, causes of population decline in China. population is that China is in the midst of a four-year famine. Famine occurred after the “Great Leap Forward” campaign.
With a declining population, demographers say India could now become the world’s most populous country.
What causes the population of the world’s most populous country to shrink?
Since the 1980s, China’s birth rate has plummeted. This is demonstrated after the “one child policy” in China. The “one-child policy” is very harsh because it includes measures such as heavy financial penalties and forced abortion.
However, the Chinese government found nothing wrong or unethical in this policy. In an attempt to defend this policy from harsh criticism, it has always been claimed that the policy has contributed to the betterment of the country, as it has prevented an additional 400 million births in the country. To be sure, the number is quite significant, but critics are upset with the policy, saying the number may be nothing more than an exaggerated estimate.
The first reason behind the population decline is definitely the “one-child policy”. The second reason lies in the preference for fewer children or no children in today’s generation. As Barcley Bram of the Asia Society Policy Institute puts it, “young Chinese people are marrying later, having fewer children, or giving up having children altogether.” The number of married couples in the country also decreased from 13.46 million to 8.14 million from 2013 to 2020.
If we look at statistics on the age of parents in recent decades, over the past three decades from 1990-2020, the average age of first-time parents has increased from 24.1 to 27.5.
The growing trend of choosing to marry and raise children later in life is causing couples to choose to have fewer children.
Last year in 2022, more people died than people were born in China. This happened for the first time in the country. In 2022, the number of births is 9.56 million. This number has actually decreased significantly compared to 2021.
What does the Chinese government say about the population crisis in China?
In 2016, Beijing abolished the one-child policy. By 2016, the one-child policy was no longer as strict as it was at the beginning. As the policy evolved through intense criticism, it included many exceptions.
In 2016, the “two-child policy” was also introduced. However, it did not produce the desired effect.
After launching the current five-year plan (2021-25), the Politburo was concerned about “major policy measures to actively address the problem of population aging”. Following this discussion, the “three-child policy” was introduced in 2021. The policy includes financial incentives for couples with three children.
Economic factors such as education costs and health care costs have also been addressed.
While the government is doing all it can to combat the problem of population aging, the growing individual preference for choosing small families over larger families is something that the government still finds difficult to achieve. can create. Not only in China, policies introduced by the Japanese government also received a cold response from the people of this country due to the global trend of having small, happy, peaceful families instead of large families. big, sophisticated.
Some scholars believe that although it is difficult to change the personal preferences of young people today, it is still possible to introduce some policies to increase the retirement age of the population from 55 for women and 60 for men. male as today. However, if such a policy is implemented, it will also face mixed reactions.
Summary of the impact of the Chinese economy!
First of all, the working age group 16-59 of China’s population continues to decline. By the end of 2022, this working population will be 875 million people. This is actually 62% of the total population. However, in 2010, China’s working population was 75 million more people than in 2022.
Now, if we talk about the population over 60 years old, the number as of the end of 2022 is 280 million, which is actually 20% of the total population. Since 2010, the number of people over 60 has increased by about 30 million.
According to Chinese estimates, by 2050, the population over 60 years old will account for about 35% of the total population. However, this seems to be an alarming estimate for the Chinese economy.
According to China’s National Working Committee on Aging, healthcare spending by this group was 7% in 2015, but it is estimated to increase to 26% of GDP by 2050.
The shrinking workforce of China’s population is not bringing a lucrative impact to the country’s economy!
In 2011, China’s workforce was 925 million people, however, it is expected that this number will plummet to 700 million by 2050.
Before that, the country enjoyed an abundant supply of labor from rural areas for its factories. However, labor from the rural core is decreasing, leading to major concerns for industries and factories. The expected labor crisis is forcing these industries to take steps that do not look good for the country’s economy.
For example, wages are rising significantly due to the labor crisis, and as a result, many factories are choosing to move to Bangladesh and Southeast Asia to deal with the labor surplus they previously had in China.
Additionally, companies like JD are investing significantly in automation to address expected labor shortages.
Chinese media has recently focused on dire concerns about factories leaving the mainland and moving to countries like India. This year, India will become the most populous country in the world! India’s workforce and demographic dividend look similar to China’s in 1980.
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Source: pagasa.edu.vn