In a democracy the size of India, elections may be the most important aspect of governance. Therefore, choosing the best candidate is essential for the development of each specific state as well as the country as a whole.
Therefore, organizations conduct what are called Opinion Polls to roughly determine which parties and candidates have the most supporters and votes, in order to predict the outcome of the election. They present a broad idea and trend with a sense of direction in the direction the nation’s thinking is moving.
As elections in Gujarat and Himachal are underway, exit polls conducted by various organizations are being revealed just hours after voting ends.
Let’s see what exactly opinion polls are.
What is an exit poll?
An exit poll is a survey of voters conducted immediately after voters cast their ballots. It is carried out by several organizations using different methods for this purpose. It is essentially considered an indicator of which party forms the government.
There is a slight difference between opinion poll and opinion poll, which is; in an opinion poll it is asked who the voter intends to vote for but in an opinion poll who the voter actually voted for.
How are polls conducted and administered?
Organizations conduct opinion polls following various methods. One of the most common methods is sampling. Some organizations may choose random or systematic sampling. Let us tell you that random sampling can sometimes be of the entire constituency and not just the voters outside a booth including parameters like age, gender, caste , area, etc
Do you know why the Election Commission banned election voting? In the Representation of the People Act, an amendment mandated the introduction of a print and electronic media ban on both secret ballots and polls within the period prescribed by the Election Commission . In 2004, the election watchdog approached the Law Ministry with the endorsement of six national parties and 18 state parties. Some recommendations have been accepted. In February 2010, restrictions were imposed on bypolls following the introduction of Section 126 (A) in the Act. Therefore, the Election Commission advises the print and electronic media not to publish or publicize any articles or programs related to the dissemination of voting results during the prohibited period.
Benefits given by the Election Commission of India to National Parties
Section 126A of the Representation of the People Act, 1951 provides that “No person shall conduct any opinion poll and publish or announce by print or electronic means or disseminate in any other way whatsoever, the results of poll within such period as the Election Commission may notify in this regard.” Any person who contravenes the provisions of this section shall be punished with imprisonment for a term which may extend to two years or with fine or with both.
Exit polls: Election Commission advice Previously, at the end of March, the Election Commission announced that exit polls could be organized, including websites, live broadcast but only after the final voting period. The Supplementary Election Commission stated that the consultation will include the display of any opinion polls and standard debates, analysis, images and sound bytes, etc.
It was also stated that news television stations should not telecast any final, official and definite results until the results are officially announced by the Election Commission of India. It is the position of the ECI that predicting election results in any form or manner by means of predictions etc. by astrologers, political analysts or by any person during the prohibited period is violates the spirit of Section 126A (of the RP Act).
TV channels, radio stations, cable networks and social media platforms must ensure that the content of the programs or broadcasts displayed by them during the 48-hour period before the close of voting at each stage will not contain any material, including participants’ views or appeals. could be construed as promoting or prejudicing the prospects” of any particular party or candidate, the EC advisory maintained.
So we can say that it aims to prevent voters of constituencies that are still about to vote from being influenced in their vote by such predictions about the prospects of the main parties different treatment.
Why were exit polls and voting challenged by the Election Commission in a multi-phase election? If the organizations that conduct them are perceived to be biased, both types of polls can become controversial. In fact, critics say these types of surveys can be influenced by the choice, wording, and nature of the sample drawn. According to political parties, opinion polls and exit polls are sponsored by their opponents and can have a negative impact or distort the choices of voters who participated in the election rather than simply reflecting public sentiment or opinion.
Are exit polls accurate? There is no doubt that the leave polls give us an idea of the trend and also a direction of the mood of the country where it is headed. But it should be noted that there are some cases where poll predictions turn out to be wrong. So polls in India are complicated.
Why are opinion polls criticized? According to critics and political parties, the organizations that conduct opinion polls can be biased in the choice, wording, timing of questions, methods they use whatever kind of sample they draw. Even the sample group’s demographic behavior, economic status, and many other factors used to deliver the survey can be questioned. It is even said that political parties participating in opinion polls may also be funded by their opponents and may not accurately represent the sentiments or views of the people.
So we can say that opinion polls may not give a clear picture of the outcome of the election or which party will win the election. Why would anyone tell a pollster anything other than what they think the pollster wants to hear? People may not give a clear picture and may be biased.
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Categories: Optical Illusion
Source: pagasa.edu.vn